Tour de France Outsider

[Selectabet]

I can honestly say I know nowt about cycling. Come to think about it I don't even thin I've ever even watched the TDF on TV however I picked this little snppet up on another forum and I have to say the poster makes a good case for a small e/w bet...

tour de france starts next saturday. i have found a price i never dreamed of seeing Jurgen Van den Broeck @ 66/1 for outright winner, that is a crazy price, an absoulte ew steal, this young rider is in the form of his life and stuck with alberto contadour despite 5 or 6 grueling attacks up the climb to alpe des heuez... this guy will claim back mountains of time on the rest of the pack once it reaches the mountains. So you may be thinking dont back him till it reaches the second week, but i think he has improved on the flat remarkebly this year and will be far close than most would think, so i expect a far shorter price by the mountain stages.

Although this guy mentions 66/1, Van den Broeck is actually available at 300/1 with Bet365 & Sportingbet. Looks worth a £1 or tow to me. You never know.

Does anyone out there bet on cycling and able to shed any light on this?

[chico83]

I can honestly say I know nowt about cycling. Come to think about it I don't even thin I've ever even watched the TDF on TV however I picked this little snppet up on another forum and I have to say the poster makes a good case for a small e/w bet...

tour de france starts next saturday. i have found a price i never dreamed of seeing Jurgen Van den Broeck @ 66/1 for outright winner, that is a crazy price, an absoulte ew steal, this young rider is in the form of his life and stuck with alberto contadour despite 5 or 6 grueling attacks up the climb to alpe des heuez... this guy will claim back mountains of time on the rest of the pack once it reaches the mountains. So you may be thinking dont back him till it reaches the second week, but i think he has improved on the flat remarkebly this year and will be far close than most would think, so i expect a far shorter price by the mountain stages.

Although this guy mentions 66/1, Van den Broeck is actually available at 300/1 with Bet365 & Sportingbet. Looks worth a £1 or tow to me. You never know.

Does anyone out there bet on cycling and able to shed any light on this?

I love watching the TdF and watched pretty much every stage last year (which may sound kinda sad considering how long each stage is ) Anyway I don't really recall seeing this guy last year, although having just searched on google it appears he finished 15th and won the 5th stage. And to add to that he lost more than 6 minutes due to a fall in stage 4. However even without losing those 6 minutes he would have finished a good 13 minutes behind the winner, Alberto Contador.

But even still, that was a great achievement considering the teams main cyclist that year, Cadel Evans was meant to be one of the overall contenders, so I'd imagine the majority of the teams tactics would have revolved around him. Since then, Evans has moved on, so it could well be that Van den Broeck is their main man this year!

Upon further research it appears that he is somewhat of a time trial specialist and a very strong climber both of which would favour him strongly in any of the three major tours.

Only thing I'm not to sure about is his recent form, it doesn't appear that he was entered into the Giro d'Italia this year and I don't know all that much about the smaller tours to be honest, so I have nothing to go on form wise. But as that guy says, he is in the form of his life and at his age he can only be improving. I'd say he's a good bet.

[Selectabet]

Nice one chico. I had a couple of quid each way at 300/1 when I posted this so a bet to nothing for me really.

Do you bet on the TDF at all? I can't say it's something I could ever see me getting into.

[chico83]

Nope, never had a bet on cycling before, think I'll take this guy E/W and Mark Cavendish to take the green jersey at 6/5.

TBH alot of the stages can be quite boring, but the flat stages which result in sprint finishes can be quite exciting, so I might end up betting on a few individual stages.

[chico83]

First stage over, Jurgen Van den Broeck was 49 seconds off the pace. He's 22 seconds behind Contador and a good bit ahead of the Schleck brothers who are his main challengers in the overall classification. So not a bad start

Thought I was going to make a bit of money as I picked David Miller (25/1) out this morning who finished 3rd but of course I forgot to tick the E/W box

[Selectabet]

Hey Chico, I know very little about what the places mean at this early stage but this seems to suggest our man is on track...

i am very happy with his start, as the prices uve posted would suggest so are many people, with all the crashes and goings on so far in just 3 days he has done very well to keep clear of trouble, he hasnt looked for any breaks and as i pretty much predicted he looks to be doing nothing more than he needs to over the first week, come the mountains any time gaps are pretty much meaningless, unless huge, as you generally get the sprinters and decent flat riders having a few minutes lead, these leads get absolutly destroyed by the big climbers, ie condatour, van den broeck and the schlecks. so if your looking at the standings unless u no what ur looking for its pretty pointless. there are people in 100th 110th that id be comparing to people in 5th and 6th. The majority of the top 20 will fall away after the 2nd stage in the mountains and become minutes and minutes behind. The real positive for me however is that van den broeck hasnt looked to contest and of the small climbs so far in the stages to gather king of the mountain points, which would indicate hes only here for 1 thing, which is a high general classement position. Van den broecks team have also stayed midfield and none have wasted energy which again suggests they r saving themselves to help van den broeck later on..... the best way for you to follow it is by looking at the change in prices, ill update daily on my opinions.. and the race is 3 weeks so thousands of k's to go yet, the race really doesnt take shape untill the 2nd week, thats when peoples form will show.

[paulharper82]

Long way to go. Normally, winner of the Tour de France is a great climber who doesn't lose too much ground in the time trials. It's Contador's to lose but fancy Lance Armstrong to pull off something spectacular before the Tour is over. Maybe not a winner but a sensational breakaway to try and go for the overall GC win. It's his last TdF so why not.

I know little of van der Broeke but you may have found a little gem reading what has been written. E/W worth a quid or two it appears. Good luck!

[Selectabet]

Another update on van den Broek today...

van den broeck is now 10th overall in the standings, and 1 minute 42 seconds behind the leader, in the top 10 there is only 1 climber of van broecks quality and that is contadour, who in my opinion isnt the contadour of last year, van den broeck has already shown he can live with contadour in the mountains this year in other races. And anyone who knows the tour de france will no the winner is always a quality climber, as that is where the time gains are massive.. Anyone not on broeck has probably missed the boat as his price is sure to come in a hell of a lot now.

I can only see odds on the exchanges now, where he's 208/1 at Betfair but you can't get an e/w bet there.

To finish top 3 its 10/1 at Betfair

Top 6 is 11/2 at Betfair

And to win without Contador he's 175/1 at Paddy Power.

[Selectabet]

After stage 6 our man is in 10th position. Apparently this perfect given the kind of stages there's been and the kind that lie ahead.

[paulharper82]

Tomorrow, the Tour going into the mountains. See how he does tomorrow as that will give you a big indication of how he is going to fare for the rest of the event.

As a side note, Chris Boardman on ITV was tipping Geraint Thomas to overcome the 20 second deficit currently on Fabian Cancellara and take the yellow jersey. Not sure if you can get a bet on that? The Welshman has been fantastic so far in this TdF.

[Selectabet]

van den Broecke now up to 7th in the overall standings.

He's now 150/1 in most places to win it overall. It may not be too late if you're going to get on as you can get 1/4 odds e/w for the first 3 places.

[Selectabet]

I need to stop myself but I've just taken another tenner e/w on van den Broecke in the Win without Contador at 100/1 with Bet365.

I mean FFS, It's the TdF!!! All I know about that is that they ride in the mountains (mostly in France), Lance Armstrong is pretty good. He might have have taken drugs. Most of them have. And crashes, lots of them.

[Selectabet]

Ok, deep breath...

Our man is now up to 4th place after today's action. However, the bookies still don't seem to be taking him seriously. In the betting without Contador he's 13th, yes 13th in the betting at a (still) massive 50/1 with Paddy Power (there's not many bookies giving odds on this yet as today has only just finished so it may be bigger elsewhere) and you can get 3 places on that at 1/4 odds.

I never knew cycling could be so exciting and I've still need seen a single bit of the action.

[chico83]

Our guy lost a bit of time today on one of the climbs, he's now 01' 39" down on 3rd place. Hopefully he's still in touch when the time trial comes along in a few days time, where he can hopefully gain a few minutes on some of his rivals. Overall he's still in with a shout of that 3rd place!

[paulharper82]

If he's a decent time trial rider, he may have a chance to overcome a minute or so on Samuel Sanchez who I don't recall rides a good time trial. Menchov is decent in that, as is Contador. van der Broeke needs a big stage on Thursday, the last in the mountains, to stand chance of making the podium I think. Still very possible though, he's done incredibly well. This year's Bradley Wiggins (surprise contender at top of the GC I mean, not modfather lookalike).